I recently spoke with some software development professionals about the economics of software development and how Agile Values and Principles, when properly applied through a framework like Scrum, could improve a company’s bottom line. One thing we discussed was that so many companies who develop software are ignorant of the economics of software development and the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of software development. Companies often try to save money by choosing the lowest cost software development option. My friends referred to this as sourcing software development on price alone. At the new division I manage, 10XP Solutions, we call this the high cost of “low cost” software development.
What is the high cost of “low cost” software development? This is the tendency for people involved with financial decisions regarding software development to put too great an emphasis on the cost of software developers. I have recently coined the Law of “Low Cost” Software Development that states, “In the absence of additional information and a lack of understanding of the economics of software development, the choice of software developers will be based on cost alone.” Unfortunately, in practice this law leads to an overall higher cost of software development.
One example I use frequently involves the concept of technical debt. Once I was asked to write an article on technical debt. When my article was published, it was stripped of a definition of technical debt because the editor believes everyone in software development knows what technical debt is. I protested, but to no avail. Nevertheless, I still maintain this assumption is not only incorrect, but it is fundamentally dangerous. I have found the number of people who make decisions affecting the creation of software who do not understand, or may have not even heard of, technical debt remains shockingly high.
For those uninitiated with the concept, technical debt was invented by Ward Cunningham as a metaphor to explain the real cost associated with short-term decision-making and shortcuts taken in software development. A classic example would be the first time code is shipped and market forces dictate that speed to market trumps all other concerns. Cunningham’s conception would be that technical debt would be a conscious decision made with the trade-offs known. Over time it seems that technical debt has morphed because these days a great deal of debt accrued by organizations is unconscious. In other words, they are creating technical debt with little or no awareness. In these cases technical debt is like high blood pressure – a silent killer.
There are now ways to quantify technical debt. The CRASH Report calculated the cost to remediate technical debt concluded that the current levels of technical debt average $3.61 per line of code (the amount is higher for Java code at $5.42). As technical debt increases so does the complexity of the code and the difficulty in making changes to existing code. This means that new features added to existing code will take much longer to develop. How much longer? A study by Dan Sturtevant at MIT, entitled “Technical Debt in Large Systems: Understanding the cost of software complexity” found that complex (technical debt-laden) code resulted in:
- Up to a two-fold increase in the amount of time to enhance software (50% decrease in developer productivity)
- Up to a 310% increase in defect density
- Developers working on poor quality code had up to a 10x increase in employee turnover
How these translate into hard dollars may be difficult to determine, but we can certainly infer that defect laden code increases the maintenance cost, QA cost, tracking cost, defect reporting cost, and costs related to poor customer satisfaction. The most surprising finding was developers working on poor quality code had a greatly increased amount of turnover. There is as obvious hard cost for replacing already difficult to find developers, but also untold morale cost for those who remain.
Total cost of ownership (TCO) addresses the total cost of software development from inception to sun setting. In 2011, the CRASH report stated the total cost of ownership for software code was $18/Line of Code (LOC). Of this, it is generally accepted that the majority of this cost is related to the maintenance of the software after its initial creation, with estimates ranging from 60-90%.
Because the majority of our cost involves maintenance it doesn’t make a great deal of sense for us to spend our effort trying to pare down the initial cost of development by employing lower cost developers. If we use less expensive resources, we could expect technical debt to increase. As technical debt increases, so too does the cost of maintenance. If we assume a slight increase in technical debt (50%) which results in maintenance negatively impacted by only 33%, our “low cost” resources have now actually cost us $4.92/LOC more. In contract, an approach that focuses on higher quality, while a little more expensive in initial cost, results in overall savings.
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There are other factors to consider in addition to just initial cost, technical debt and maintenance. Many people employing the “low cost” software development model are rarely paying attention to another hidden cost – the cost of delay. Frequently a trade off is made between cost of developers and productivity with lower cost developers being less productive. This results in software products that take longer to produce and deploy.
Of course, because these developers are lower cost, one could always just throw more people at the problem, which is often done. However, adding more people to solving software development problems does not result in a corresponding increase in productivity and obviously eats into cost “savings”. There are many who believe doubling the number of people results in a doubling of productivity. This is an example of applying mechanistic thinking to knowledge problems. There are numerous studies indicating increasing the size of teams results in productivity increases much lower than expected. Therefore, “low cost” development leads to longer cycle times and a higher cost of delay.
While it may be seductive to think that you can save money on software development by using “low cost” developers, it rarely results in overall cost savings when considering TCO and cost of delay. The cost of delay and technical debt are generally hidden costs (at least on the balance sheet). Over the years I have had numerous discussions with software development professionals (CIO, CTO, Development Managers, Product Owners, etc.) regarding the “low cost” software development models and there is nearly a universal befuddlement over why the model continues to flourish. Unfortunately, many people making financial decisions regarding software development resourcing simply do not understand the nature of software development and TCO. If they did, my guess is that they would make drastically different decisions.